• 2012/4/6

Deterioration Of A Tonsillitis Economy

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5th April 2012

Quote of the Day:


The greatest wealth is health.

 


Virgil – A Roman Poet

 


Macro Overview


The Perils Of Treating The Symptoms

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  • Sorry I’ve been off writing for a couple of weeks, I’ve been sick. You see, I had just a common cold/flu virus but because I’d had a few consecutively my immune system was vulnerable. This is when tonsillitis strikes, usually on the back of a virus when the body is weak. By the time I’d got to the doctors the tonsils were reducing so it was treated with just painkillers.
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  • This was my first mistake: while the tonsils were improving a larger, much more aggressive throat infection was building steam constricting my airways to dangerous levels. Before I knew it I was coughing up blood and accompanying the paramedics to my local hospital. I ended up on a drip for 3 days which did give me some time to think about the economy but, if I’m being honest, I was not thinking that deeply, nor was I looking at the markets – just the ceiling, mainly! It is only now, after a serious set-back and a significant amount of pain, that I can say I am truly on a road to recovery.
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  • There are so many parallels with economic malaise and subsequent recoveries here that I don’t know where to begin. But perhaps the most glaring moral regards the treatment of the cause rather than the symptoms. However, painful or uncomfortable it may be, it is often better to strike at the heart of the problem than to tinker around the periphery… and of course, prevention (I should not have over-run myself over the last few weeks) is the best cure.
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  • Anyway, I’m good now… so let’s get back into the groove.

 


Market Overview


Wall Of Wonder

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  • What’s all this? It appears that as we reach new highs on the S&P the market appears to be doubting itself again. They say the market climbs a wall of worry… not lately. These days the market hurtles down a runway of uncertainty and deleveraging only to takeoff on the aerodynamics of QE.
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  • Now we are increasing altitude and flying high only one question remains…how much fuel do we have? And will there be an airstrip when we need to land?
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  • Speaking of which, I notice Brent Crude did not dip below $120 once while I was sick. Bernanke may not have the ammunition we think he does with Oil up here… he can wave the bazooka all he wants, but, ultimately, he may only be able to fire oil-friendly pellets.
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  • Chart of the Day is Brent Crude… oh, and the Spanish 5 yr CDS over the last 2 months – just to get the grey cells working.

 


Chart of the Day



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